A new attribution study published in Science Advances has found that children under the age of 10 represent the demographic group most exposed to additional heat-stress days caused by climate change. The research combines climate modeling with demographic data to assess exposure patterns across different age groups and geographic regions.
The study identifies 583 million children globally—representing 44% of all children under 10—as currently experiencing at least 20 heat-stress days per year attributable to human-caused climate change. This exposure significantly exceeds that of older populations, with only 30% of people aged 60-69 facing similar thresholds. South Asia, southeast Asia, and west Africa show the highest rates of childhood exposure to dangerous levels of humid heat, largely due to rapidly growing populations concentrated in younger age cohorts. The research emphasizes that children in developing nations face disproportionate exposure despite contributing minimally to historical greenhouse gas emissions.
The study defines heat-stress days using indoor wet-bulb globe temperature measurements, a metric accounting for both temperature and humidity. Days with readings above 28 degrees Celsius—considered the threshold for moderate heat stress—are classified as heat-stress days. Researchers compared present-day climate patterns to pre-industrial conditions to isolate the warming effect attributable to human activity, quantifying additional heat-stress days driven by climate change alone.
Climate models indicate that humid heat poses particular health risks because high humidity reduces the body’s ability to cool itself through perspiration. Children face greater vulnerability than adults due to physiological temperature regulation differences. The researchers project increased exposure in warming scenarios, with most population growth expected in low-latitude regions throughout the remainder of the 21st century, potentially intensifying childhood exposure to heat stress in vulnerable areas.
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