According to research published in Science Advances, children under the age of 10 face greater exposure to additional heat-stress days caused by climate change than any other age group. The attribution study, which combines climate modeling with demographic data, determines that approximately 583 million children in this age category experience at least 20 extra heat-stress days per year as a result of human-caused warming. This represents roughly 44% of all children under 10 globally.
The research defines a heat-stress day as any day with a wet-bulb globe temperature above 28 degrees Celsius, a threshold for moderate heat stress that accounts for both temperature and humidity. Scientists compared current climate patterns with pre-industrial conditions to isolate the warming effects attributable to human activity. The analysis reveals that low-latitude countries in the tropics experience the most additional heat-stress days, with examples including Côte d’Ivoire facing approximately 112 heat-stress days annually, about half of which stem from climate change. Germany, by contrast, experiences only 0.1 heat-stress days per year attributable to human-caused warming.
Geographic and demographic patterns explain the disparities in childhood exposure. South Asia, southeast Asia, and west Africa record the greatest exposure to dangerous humid heat levels, largely because these regions have rapidly expanding populations with high proportions of young children. The researchers note that 1.3 billion children under 10 exist globally, compared to 600 million people aged 60-69, and that African and Asian countries typically feature younger demographic profiles than northern hemisphere nations, which tend to have cooler climates and aging populations.
The study highlights particular vulnerability among young people, noting that children’s bodies are less capable of regulating temperature than adults. The lead author emphasizes the climate justice implications, pointing out that children in developing nations have contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions. As global temperatures continue to rise, the research warns that children will face even greater exposure to heat stress than other age groups in future scenarios of 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius of additional warming.
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