A newly published analysis contends that developing the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea would generate significant economic costs through climate damage that substantially outweigh their projected benefits to the UK economy. The assessment estimates climate-related economic harm ranging from £119 billion to £336 billion over the coming decades, based on peer-reviewed research linking temperature increases to economic losses. This stands in stark contrast to projections from Adura, the company behind the development, which estimates the fields would provide £28.7 billion in value to the UK.
The analysis has become central to an increasingly contentious debate over whether the UK government should grant approval for the projects. Supporters, including the oil industry and some energy sector leaders, argue that development would boost the UK economy and enhance energy security. However, energy experts have countered that these claims rest on flawed assumptions, since oil and gas are internationally traded commodities whose prices are determined by global markets rather than domestic production levels. The controversy has prompted resistance from within the ruling Labour Party, with multiple MPs opposing the plans.
Researchers conducting the analysis applied established climate economics methodologies to production estimates provided by Adura, calculating the carbon pollution costs that would accumulate through 2100. The figures likely represent underestimates, as they exclude damages from extreme weather intensification, sea level rise, and climate-related mortality. According to the assessment, Rosebank accounts for approximately 88 percent of the projected climate damages.
Academic experts not involved in the analysis have reinforced its core conclusions while acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in complex economic projections. Several noted that the UK’s renewable energy sector has expanded three times faster than the overall economy in recent years, suggesting alternative pathways for growth. The government’s official climate advisers have previously stated that pursuing net zero goals represents a more cost-effective economic strategy than continued fossil fuel dependence. A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson maintained that oil and gas will remain important to the UK energy system while the country transitions to clean power sources.
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