Research published in Environmental Research Letters indicates that emissions from natural sources triggered by climate change are amplifying global warming more significantly than current climate models account for. As temperatures rise, permafrost thaws, forests dry and burn more intensely, and wetlands and lakes warm, all releasing stored methane and carbon dioxide that further accelerate warming.
The study examined four primary sources of these natural emissions: permafrost thaw, wetlands, freshwater systems, and wildfires. Scientists determined that these feedback loops could increase global heating by between 20% and 30% by the end of this century, potentially adding 0.2°C to 0.4°C to global average temperatures depending on the level of climate action undertaken by nations. Even modest temperature increases at the global scale can substantially raise the risk of severe heatwaves, floods, droughts, and other climate impacts.
Researchers noted that these natural emission sources are largely absent from the climate projections guiding policy decisions, meaning current models likely underestimate future warming and overestimate the remaining carbon budget available for emissions. Lead researcher Sam Abernethy emphasized that this “hidden multiplier” must be incorporated into the next generation of climate policies to improve their effectiveness.
The findings align with previous warnings about climate tipping points. Scientists cautioned that continued warming could trigger irreversible changes such as the collapse of ice sheets, widespread permafrost thaw, disruption of ocean currents, and transformation of the Amazon rainforest. However, the research also indicated that aggressive fossil fuel emission reductions would still reduce the additional warming from natural sources, with best-case scenarios limiting natural-source warming to 0.2°C and worst-case scenarios reaching 0.4°C.
Ecologists not directly involved in the study characterized the findings as an important reminder of the urgency of rapid emissions cuts, noting that every fraction of a degree of warming increases the risk of triggering reinforcing natural feedback mechanisms that could further accelerate climate change.
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