The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are engaged in fresh diplomatic talks in Geneva, more than a year after initially agreeing to end their confrontation. However, the conflict in eastern Congo remains active, with fighting continuing despite the previous agreement. The negotiations are complicated by multiple overlapping disputes that have proven difficult to untangle.
At the core of the disagreement between Kinshasa and Kigali is the FDLR, an armed group that emerged following Rwanda’s 1994 genocide and has operated from eastern DRC. Rwanda views the group’s presence near its border as a security threat, while the DRC maintains that addressing this concern cannot justify the presence of foreign military forces on Congolese territory. Under the Washington framework, the DRC agreed to a process for neutralizing the FDLR through demobilization. The Congolese government says this process is underway, but Rwandan President Paul Kagame has characterized the agreement as insufficient. Congo’s government disputes this assessment and accuses Rwanda of maintaining expansionist ambitions in the region.
The situation is further complicated by M23, a rebel group that captured Goma in January 2025 and subsequently took Bukavu. M23 operates under the political umbrella of the Congo River Alliance, which is engaged in separate Qatar-led dialogue with Kinshasa. While the Geneva process focuses on DRC-Rwanda relations and the Qatar process addresses the government’s dispute with the AFC-M23 alliance, these conflicts are deeply interconnected on the ground. M23’s territorial control affects Kinshasa’s strategic calculations, while military responses by the Congolese army influence the security environment along Rwanda’s border.
Civil society observers and residents of affected areas express skepticism about the diplomatic process. Activists note that despite over a year of negotiations, populations in eastern Congo continue to experience displacement, agricultural devastation, and loss of livelihoods. Recent incidents, including allegations of attacks on civilian areas and disputes over a downed aircraft carrying humanitarian supplies, demonstrate how quickly contested events become part of the broader conflict narrative.
For residents of eastern DRC, the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts will ultimately be measured not by conference room agreements but by whether violence ceases and normal life can resume. The fundamental disagreement between Kinshasa and Kigali over the nature of security threats and appropriate responses suggests neither side is prepared to alter its military posture without substantial guarantees from the other.
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