Wildfires currently affecting Indonesia are projected to generate carbon emissions comparable to those from 2015, when fires burned approximately 2.6 million hectares and produced 333 megatonnes of carbon. Data from the Global Fire Emissions Database indicates that as of 7 September, Indonesian fires had already released 76 megatonnes of carbon in 2026. Researchers at Wageningen University note that certain regions, particularly Papua, are experiencing fire activity at unprecedented levels.
The fires coincide with a strong El Niño event that began in June and is expected to persist into 2027. This naturally occurring climate phenomenon, driven by Pacific Ocean temperatures, elevates atmospheric and land temperatures while reducing moisture levels in Indonesia, thereby creating favorable conditions for large-scale fire activity. Experts note that while El Niño does not directly cause fires, it significantly amplifies conditions that facilitate ignition, spread, and persistence of blazes. The current El Niño is anticipated to rank among the most intense on record.
Indonesia’s fire seasons have historically generated substantial global emissions. The 1997 fire season alone produced carbon emissions equivalent to 13 to 40 percent of that year’s global fossil-fuel emissions. Similarly, carbon dioxide emissions from the 2015 fire season exceeded the European Union’s total annual fossil-fuel emissions. The severe atmospheric haze from fires in the region has been associated with more than 100,000 premature deaths.
The scale and intensity of fires in Indonesia are closely linked to land-use practices, particularly agricultural conversion and peatland drainage for palm oil plantations. When peatlands are drained, water tables drop significantly, creating highly flammable conditions. Unlike surface fires, peat fires can smolder underground, rendering soil itself available as fuel. In response to past fire seasons, Indonesia has implemented various protective measures, including a moratorium on licenses for forest and peatland conversion, and established a peatland restoration agency following the 2015 fires. However, the effectiveness of these interventions in mitigating current fire activity remains unclear, with some regions showing relative stability while others experience record-breaking fire activity.
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