Wildfires currently affecting Indonesia are generating carbon emissions comparable to the nation’s most severe fire season of the current century, according to fire emissions data and climate researchers. As of early September, the fires had produced 76 million tonnes of carbon, putting 2026 on a trajectory matching 2015, when fires burned approximately 2.6 million hectares and generated a total of 333 million tonnes of carbon. Some regions, particularly the eastern province of Papua, are experiencing their most extensive burning on record.
Indonesia’s fire seasons of major intensity correlate with El Niño years, a natural climate phenomenon linked to Pacific Ocean temperatures that periodically raises temperatures and reduces moisture levels in the region. The current El Niño event began in June and is anticipated to continue into 2027, with scientists projecting it will rank among the most intense on record. The dry season, typically running from August through November, normally sees fire activity, but at substantially lower levels than what is currently occurring.
The fires are particularly emissions-intensive due to Indonesia’s extensive tropical peatland ecosystem. When peatlands are drained for agricultural development and palm oil plantations, the resulting dry landscape becomes highly flammable. Unlike fires in other ecosystems, peat fires can smolder underground, making the soil itself available as fuel and enabling prolonged burning and greater carbon release.
Indonesia has implemented various protective measures following major fire events in 1997-98 and 2015, including forest moratoriums and the establishment of a peatland restoration agency. Peatland restoration efforts conducted in recent years were credited with reducing fires during a prior El Niño event. However, the effectiveness of these interventions in limiting current fire activity remains uncertain, particularly in regions like Papua and neighboring Papua New Guinea, which are undergoing landscape transformations similar to those experienced in other Indonesian regions two decades earlier.
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