Fighting has intensified across northern Ethiopia, prompting government officials to attribute the unrest to interference by neighboring and regional powers. Ethiopian army chief Birhanu Jula specifically identified Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt as adversaries supporting armed opposition groups within Ethiopia’s borders, alleging that Eritrea serves as a liaison connecting these external actors to domestic armed factions.
The three accused nations have denied the allegations. Egyptian officials stated their commitment to respecting state sovereignty and non-interference in regional affairs, while Sudan’s military characterized the accusations as baseless. Sudan countered with its own accusations, claiming Ethiopia provides support to the Rapid Support Forces militia engaged in Sudan’s ongoing civil conflict, assertions that Ethiopia has rejected.
Pre-existing tensions complicate these new accusations. Egypt and Ethiopia have maintained strained relations centered on disagreements over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a dispute that has expanded to broader regional security concerns. Sudan and Ethiopia have also experienced deteriorating relations since Sudan’s civil conflict began, with Khartoum asserting that Ethiopia trains and supplies the RSF. Eritrea and Ethiopia, once allied during the Tigray conflict between 2020 and 2022, have experienced cooling relations as Ethiopia pursues Red Sea access.
Some analysts suggest the accusations serve domestic political purposes. Egyptian parliamentary officials and think tank directors have proposed that Ethiopia’s statements about foreign conspiracies aim to consolidate national support and distract from internal challenges. A new opposition coalition comprising seven ethnically and regionally diverse groups announced last week presents organizational challenges to the federal government.
The fighting now extends across Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions, areas with combined populations exceeding 38 million and bordering Djibouti and Eritrea. Analysts warn that sustained attribution of domestic crises to external conspiracies risks transforming Ethiopia’s internal conflict into a regional confrontation if neighboring states respond similarly.
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