With the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon scheduled to conclude its mandate at the end of 2026, European officials are exploring potential alternatives to fill the resulting security gap. The EU’s diplomatic service has proposed a three-year mission combining military and civilian components focused on advising and training Lebanon’s armed forces and internal security apparatus, particularly in border and maritime security matters. This initiative is expected to be discussed at an EU defence and foreign ministers meeting in Ireland this week.
The original UN force, known as UNIFIL, was established on March 19, 1978, following an Israeli military operation in the country. Its responsibilities expanded significantly after the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, when it was tasked with monitoring ceasefire arrangements and supporting Lebanese military deployment in southern regions. However, the force lacked enforcement capabilities and could only observe and report on developments rather than compel military withdrawals or disarmament.
Israel has been instrumental in pushing for UNIFIL’s termination, contending that the force failed to prevent Hezbollah’s military expansion along the shared border. The UN has proposed alternative arrangements, including a residual role for another organization or a scaled-down successor force with between 900 and 3,000 personnel compared to UNIFIL’s approximately 7,000 troops. A temporary absence of international oversight poses significant risks, with analysts warning that Israel could establish direct coordination arrangements with Lebanese forces, potentially creating permanent structural changes to the security architecture.
Recent diplomatic efforts, including talks in Rome during August, have attempted to establish pilot zones where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese military units would assume security responsibilities. However, these negotiations have stalled without agreement on expanding the proposed model. Experts caution that any European deployment would face considerable challenges, particularly if Israel continues military operations and Hezbollah rejects the proposed framework. Without comprehensive political agreement and acceptable terms acceptable to all parties, a European mission risks encountering the same constraints that limited UNIFIL’s effectiveness.
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