The Alternative für Deutschland achieved its strongest state election result on Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt, securing 43.8% of the vote and dramatically outpacing the chancellor’s centre-right CDU, which fell to 17.2%, and the centre-left SPD at 9.3%. The AfD, officially classified as an extremist party by German intelligence, won 39 of 83 parliamentary seats, falling short of an outright majority but positioning itself closer to state governance than any far-right party in Germany since World War II.
The result has reverberated across Europe, where mainstream political leaders express concern about a potential continent-wide nationalist surge. Sweden is scheduled to hold elections next weekend, while France faces a presidential ballot later this spring. Italy, Spain, and Poland will conduct key parliamentary races during the year ahead. Polling indicates far-right parties maintain strong support across these nations, prompting centrist European leaders to warn of a critical moment for the continent.
Analysts caution against extrapolating too broadly from a single regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, a state with 1.8 million voters that has historically leaned heavily toward far-right candidates. The AfD’s support in the region has consistently run roughly double its national average over the past decade. Nevertheless, the party leads in national polls and remains competitive or ahead in several other state races. Research by over 150 political scientists across 31 countries indicates that nearly one in four European voters now cast ballots for far-right parties, a proportion that has grown nearly fivefold since the mid-1990s and has accelerated particularly over recent years.
Scholars debate the extent to which mainstream parties’ strategy of excluding far-right parties from coalitions has inadvertently strengthened them by insulating them from the compromises and failures of government. Simultaneously, observers note that mainstream centre parties have been weakened through unstable alliances that accomplish little, further frustrating voters. Political scientists contend the primary driver of far-right expansion remains the mainstreaming and normalization of far-right ideas and framing by media and mainstream political actors, which has legitimized views previously considered extreme without fundamentally shifting underlying voter attitudes on immigration and related issues.
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