The European Court of Auditors released a report assessing the EU’s capacity to defend against potential invasion, concluding that while preparedness has improved markedly since 2022, substantial challenges remain in achieving the bloc’s stated objective of defence readiness by the end of the decade.
The audit identified fragmented national defence systems, industrial production constraints, and ongoing dependence on American military capabilities as key impediments to the goal. ECA member Marek Opioła, who oversaw the review, stated that the EU could still achieve significant advancement through substantial increases in defence expenditures and accelerated ammunition manufacturing capacity. Between 2020 and 2025, EU member states raised defence spending by 79 percent in response to the Russian threat and efforts to align with NATO spending benchmarks. However, the bloc failed to meet its pledge deadline for supplying ammunition to Ukraine, delivering one million rounds eight months behind schedule in November 2024.
The EU established its 2030 defence readiness target the previous year following intelligence assessments that Russia could initiate large-scale European warfare by that timeframe. The auditors emphasized that achieving “strategic autonomy” and “the ability to independently sustain high-intensity warfare” requires overcoming major structural obstacles. The report noted that insufficient coordination among EU governments has created risks of duplicative spending and persistent capability gaps across member states.
A significant tension exists between immediate military procurement needs and the bloc’s “Buy European” initiative designed to reduce foreign supplier dependencies. Data from February 2022 through June 2023 showed that 78 percent of EU government defence purchases originated outside the bloc, with the United States accounting for 63 percent. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, American purchases increased due to immediate availability requirements, though officials indicated early signs of improvement in European sourcing capacity.
The bloc has established standards requiring common defence spending to benefit European or closely-associated industries, with flexibility permitted where Europe cannot supply critical materials promptly. Ukraine recently requested an exemption to acquire US-made Patriot interceptors through EU funding, which would require member state approval under current procurement rules.
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