The opposition Conservative Party has released a report arguing that UK electricity prices are excessively high and that prioritizing cheaper power over climate policies would better serve both economic and environmental goals. The report, produced by the centre-right thinktank Onward and modeled by Transira Energy, proposes abandoning the UK’s net-zero by 2050 target after the next election in 2029. The Conservatives contend that lower electricity costs would naturally encourage adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps, thereby increasing economic electrification and reducing emissions without explicit climate mandates.
However, multiple experts interviewed identify significant flaws in the report’s analysis and conclusions. Most critically, the proposed alternative policy pathway would result in an additional 524 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions between 2030 and 2050—equivalent to South Africa’s annual emissions—contradicting the Conservative claim that cheaper electricity would improve environmental outcomes. The report also assumes lower electricity uptake despite removing government subsidies and mandates such as the boiler upgrade scheme and the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel vehicle sales. Overall electricity consumption in the alternative scenario is 7% lower than under current policies.
Experts further note that the report excludes significant costs from its analysis. The scenario removes support for electric vehicles and heat pumps while providing preferential grid connection policies for data centers, yet fails to account for infrastructure costs or the substantial fuel expenditure required to replace missing electric vehicles with petrol and diesel alternatives—estimated at £65-95 billion over two decades. Additionally, the modeling relies on assumptions about stable, low gas prices that experts consider questionable.
Another critical issue involves the electricity-to-gas price ratio, known as the spark gap. While Onward argues that lower electricity prices would motivate consumers to switch from gas boilers to heat pumps, the report’s own modeling suggests this price ratio would actually worsen initially and remain only marginally improved by 2050, insufficient to drive consumer adoption without subsidies or regulatory requirements. Experts conclude that with more credible assumptions, renewable energy sources rather than gas and nuclear would deliver the lowest total costs.
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