The Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BWET) experienced extraordinary gains between late February and mid-September, closing at $57.30 on February 27 and reaching $726.92 on September 11, representing a gain of 1,168.62%. Over the same period, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which holds physical gold, declined from $483.75 to $398.77, a loss of 17.57%. This divergence highlighted a classic market pattern wherein gold initially gains value during periods of geopolitical tension but sells off sharply once conflict actually begins.
The shipping ETF’s exceptional performance was driven by disruptions to global maritime routes stemming from the Iran conflict. According to reports, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed following initial strikes, cutting off vessels that normally passed through daily and affecting approximately a quarter of worldwide seaborne oil trade. This closure created severe scarcity in available shipping capacity and routes, causing freight rates to reprice significantly. BWET holds futures contracts on dry bulk shipping rates, positioning it to capture gains from these disruptions on a scale that energy stocks and crude oil could not match.
Comparatively, other major assets showed more modest gains during the period. The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) rose 17.72%, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gained 11.41% and Bitcoin-focused ETF (IBIT) increased 17.69%. NVIDIA stock advanced 23.48%. BWET’s performance stood isolated from the broader market cluster, representing a concentrated geopolitical bet rather than diversified exposure.
Context matters for interpreting BWET’s gains. The fund closed 2025 at $19.26 and had already advanced to $57.30 by February 27, before the strikes began. The year-to-date gain through mid-September stood at 3,673.35%, but a substantial portion predated the conflict. The conflict-specific portion represented the 1,168.62% surge from late February onward. Analysts noted that such concentrated positions dependent on a single geopolitical outcome carry substantial downside risk if circumstances change, and cautioned that this asset class belongs only in the speculative portion of a portfolio with appropriate risk management measures in place.
Gold’s year-to-date performance through mid-September showed a marginal gain of 0.62%, having climbed during the buildup to conflict before retreating after strikes commenced, exemplifying the “buy the rumor, sell the news” trading pattern.
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