Researchers at Harvard University’s Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability have released a report analyzing the impact of federal policy changes on electric vehicle adoption in the United States. The study, published in July and titled “Simulating Impacts of Proposed Trump Policy Changes on Electric Vehicle Adoption,” projects that battery electric vehicles will capture 32 percent of the new car market by 2030, up from approximately 8 percent currently.
According to the authors—Elaine Buckberg, James Stock, and Cassandra Cole—this represents substantial growth despite regulatory obstacles introduced since January 2025. The researchers identified the elimination of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit as the most impactful policy change, reducing the projected 2030 market share by 6.2 percentage points. Other measures analyzed included the revocation of charging infrastructure tax credits, the elimination of federal tailpipe emission restrictions, and the removal of California’s authority to set stricter emission standards than federal requirements. Several of these actions are currently under legal challenge.
Buckberg stated that while these policy headwinds will slow EV adoption, fundamental market forces will continue driving growth. The researchers identified battery technology improvements, expanded vehicle range capabilities, and growing public charging infrastructure—particularly access to the Tesla Supercharger network—as key factors supporting continued adoption. The study suggests that without policy interventions, the EV market share could have reached 48 percent by 2030.
The report highlights consumer concerns about charging infrastructure as the primary barrier to accelerated adoption. The researchers recommend increased transparency in charging app data regarding charger availability and pricing, estimating such improvements could boost sales by approximately 6 percent. As battery costs decline and vehicle prices approach parity with conventional automobiles, the report suggests EV adoption will increasingly be driven by performance advantages and operational cost savings rather than government incentives.
However, the automotive industry landscape presents mixed signals. Several major manufacturers have curtailed EV production plans, and recent announcements indicate delays in battery manufacturing expansion, complicating projections about near-term market development.
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