
Diplomatic efforts resumed as US envoys visited Moscow and Kyiv following a weekend pause in strikes on both capitals. The visits come amid a broader pattern of escalation in attacks on civilian targets throughout the conflict, which began in February 2022.
Analysis by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data organization shows a significant rise in strikes against civilian infrastructure. Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine increased from 1,635 incidents in 2022—representing over 5 percent of all Russian attacks that year—to 7,170 by August 2026, accounting for more than 13 percent of total Russian operations. Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Russia grew from 24 incidents in 2022, roughly 10 percent of their total operations, to 3,560 by August 2026, representing 27 percent of all Ukrainian attacks. While a higher proportion of Ukrainian strikes target civilian infrastructure, Russia conducts substantially more attacks overall.
Geographically, Russian attacks concentrate along the front line, with Donetsk experiencing the highest number of incidents followed by Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson. Residential structures account for approximately 68 percent of Russian strikes on civilian targets, with energy facilities comprising over 19 percent. Ukraine has focused Ukrainian strikes in the Belgorod region, where residential infrastructure represents about 69 percent of attacks with nearly 30 percent hitting energy facilities.
The nature of warfare has shifted dramatically, with drone and air strikes now comprising the majority of attacks rather than traditional artillery and shelling. Russia anticipates launching 840 ballistic missiles this year, a 47 percent increase from 2025, including use of longer-range Iskander-1000 missiles. Ukraine’s ability to intercept incoming threats has declined significantly, with interception rates falling from 24 percent in 2025 to 10.2 percent in 2026 due to depleted stocks of Patriot and IRIS-T interceptor missiles. Western allies have pledged substantial support, including drone procurement packages and air defense systems to address the growing threat.
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