An Oakland Institute analysis using International Energy Agency data examined the distribution of global demand for six critical minerals—copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and magnet rare earths—in 2024. The study found that renewable power and electric vehicles represented 26% of combined demand for these materials, while the remaining 74% came from construction, conventional transport, industrial machinery, defense, electronics and other sectors. Specific breakdowns revealed significant variation by mineral, with nickel seeing 83% of demand outside the clean energy and EV sectors, while copper represented 71% and both cobalt and graphite at 68%.
Projections for 2050 show substantial increases in mineral consumption driven by the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero scenario, which anticipates clean-energy technologies to account for much of subsequent demand growth. Under this pathway, electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles would grow from 11 million units in 2020 to nearly 2 billion by 2050, consuming approximately 23% of projected mineral demand. A University of California, Davis study modeled multiple decarbonization pathways and found that combining lower vehicle ownership, smaller batteries and optimized recycling could reduce annual lithium demand by as much as 92% compared with intensive-use scenarios.
Recycling and alternative strategies present opportunities to reduce primary mineral extraction requirements. The IEA estimates that rightsizing batteries, adopting alternative chemistries and expanding recycling could reduce global lithium demand by 25% in 2030. By 2040, recycled materials could reduce primary copper and cobalt needs by 30%, while reducing lithium and nickel requirements by 15%. Without increased recycling efforts, mining investment to meet projected demand would be approximately one-third higher.
U.S. policy discussions have recently broadened mineral priorities beyond energy transition concerns. At the Critical Minerals Ministerial earlier this year, federal officials emphasized missile-defense systems, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing and economic security as rationales for increased mineral production. In January, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation closed a $600-million investment in a critical-mineral financing consortium and reported copper shipments from Congo’s state-owned mining company to the United States. Environmental and rights-based concerns remain significant, with research indicating that 54% of current and prospective energy-transition mineral projects are located on or near Indigenous peoples’ land.
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