
Economist Sir Andrew Dilnot has warned that implementing a new social care system modeled on the NHS in England could require many decades, according to statements made to the BBC. Dilnot, who led a commission proposing social care reforms 15 years ago, indicated that Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s apparent goal of making social care completely free, including residential costs, would carry very substantial expense.
Burnham has suggested his proposals would operate on the principle that “everyone contributes, everyone is covered” and has not ruled out tax increases to fund such a system. He indicated that detailed proposals would be presented at his conference speech on Tuesday, though he also stated that implementation would not occur before the next general election, currently scheduled for August 2029. This timeline reflects Burnham’s commitment to honoring Labour’s 2024 election manifesto pledges, which included promises not to increase national insurance, income tax, or VAT. Labour MP Darren Jones mentioned that scrapping the pensions triple lock could be considered as one option among others for funding social care reforms.
Dilnot noted that the implementation timeline has effectively moved further into the future compared to Burnham’s earlier promises. He observed that if proposals are included in Labour’s 2029 election manifesto, it would represent 30 years since Tony Blair launched a royal commission on social care. The Health Foundation has estimated that a universal social care system in England could cost approximately £18.5bn annually. Dilnot stated his belief that an NHS-style system could cost well in excess of £18bn, though a Scottish-model approach could cost approximately half that amount.
Currently in England, individuals with assets exceeding £23,250 are not entitled to council assistance with care costs. Scotland offers state-funded personal care to all adults assessed as needing help with specific tasks, though accommodation and living expenses remain subject to means testing. Dilnot’s own earlier commission had proposed a lifetime cap of £35,000 on care costs, which was accepted by the Cameron coalition government but subsequently delayed and ultimately abandoned by later Conservative administrations.
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