A Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts released this month shows significant upward revisions to crude oil price expectations for the year. Brent crude forecasts increased to an average of $89.05 per barrel from $85.08 recorded in the previous month’s poll, while West Texas Intermediate projections rose to $83.90 per barrel from $80.20. The range of Brent forecasts spans from $77.27 to $97.60 per barrel as analysts attempt to assess the durability of oil supply recovery efforts.
Pessimism about near-term normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz underpins the revised forecasts. Several major financial institutions have shifted expectations, with HSBC now modeling only gradual improvements in shipping lanes and describing conditions as structurally compromised. The bank expects liquids flows to remain substantially below pre-conflict levels of approximately 19-20 million barrels daily. DBS Bank removed assumptions about near-term conflict resolution from its models. Despite these constraints, Gulf producers have made progress restoring exports, with Goldman Sachs estimating regional oil shipments reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, approaching typical levels from the previous year and including off-the-books tanker movements.
Chinese import dynamics present additional variables affecting price trajectories. While some analysts expect crude purchases to strengthen as inventory corrections and seasonal demand patterns develop, others have adopted more conservative outlooks following recent price increases and freight cost surges. Chinese imports recovered from June lows to approximately 9 million barrels per day in August but remain below historical averages. OPEC+ members are expected to maintain existing production targets at their upcoming meeting.
Market equilibrium appears unlikely to materialize until later in the year or beyond. Economic growth concerns should prevent prices from reaching conflict-induced peaks, though inventory drawdowns by consuming nations should support demand. Most analysts project the global market will return to surplus conditions only after improved shipping conditions, regional production recovery and expanded non-OPEC output increase available supplies to consuming markets.
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