Former Prime Minister Paul Keating has criticized the Aukus agreement, contending that it commits Australia to participate in any future military conflict between the United States and China. Keating characterized such a conflict as one that the US would “certainly lose,” and warned that Australia would subsequently face retaliation from China having participated in what he termed a “military escapade.” He argued that the arrangement effectively undermines Australian sovereignty and entangles the nation within American military operations and strategic objectives.
Keating’s remarks were prompted by comments from Republican congressman Michael McCaul, who visited Australia this month and met with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Defence Minister Richard Marles, and Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong. McCaul stated that Australia would logically be expected to support US military intervention to protect Taiwan, and suggested that US nuclear submarines rotating through Australian bases could carry nuclear weapons after 2032. McCaul also described Australia as a strategic “beachhead” for US military operations in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Aukus agreement, a multi-decade defense partnership, involves Australia acquiring three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the United States beginning in 2032, with costs projected to reach $368 billion through the mid-2050s. The arrangement also includes plans for Australia to construct five additional submarines of a new Aukus-class design in South Australia from the early 2040s. Additionally, the agreement encompasses regular rotations of US nuclear submarines through Australian naval facilities.
Greens senator David Shoebridge and other critics have expressed concerns about Australia’s role in the arrangement, particularly regarding the deployment of nuclear-armed submarines and the characterization of Australia as a forward military position for US operations. The Australian government’s approach to nuclear weapons on Australian territory is constrained by the Treaty of Rarotonga, which prohibits stationing nuclear weapons in the country, though the US maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding the presence of nuclear weapons on its military platforms.
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