A Climate Council report released this week projects significant economic and environmental consequences for Australia from coastal flooding through the end of the century. The analysis forecasts that more than 267,000 coastal properties and 2 million hectares of land will experience flood damage by 2100 as sea levels continue to rise. The estimated total economic losses are valued at $855.1 billion, comprising $274.3 billion in property losses and $580.7 billion in land use damages.
Three Australian states face the greatest property exposure to coastal flooding risks. Queensland has approximately 93,157 properties at risk, followed by New South Wales with 71,210 properties and Western Australia with 51,366 properties. Among major metropolitan areas, the Gold Coast is expected to be the country’s most exposed urban center, facing projected economic losses of $84.4 billion. Brisbane and Melbourne are also identified as metropolitan areas expected to experience substantial impacts, with Melbourne’s losses concentrated in low-lying areas adjacent to Port Phillip Bay and the Yarra River.
The report, based on modeling by Professor Tom Kompas at the University of Melbourne, incorporates sea level rise and storm surge projections under a climate scenario anticipating a 2.7-degree Celsius increase in global temperature by century’s end. The modeling also identified that approximately 619,713 hectares of farming land will be affected, raising concerns about potential food security impacts. Kompas characterized the cost estimates as conservative, noting they do not account for additional impacts from coastal erosion or significant ice sheet melt.
Global sea levels have risen more than 22 centimeters since 1900, with human-caused warming as the dominant driver since 1970. An additional 14 centimeter rise is expected in Australia by 2050, which will increase the frequency of permanent inundation and tidal flooding. Experts emphasize the importance of both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing adaptation and planning strategies immediately, including avoiding development on flood-prone areas.
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