A report released by the Climate Council projects substantial economic and physical damage to Australian coastal communities as sea levels continue to rise. The analysis forecasts that more than 267,000 properties and approximately 2 million hectares of land will experience flooding damage by the end of the century. Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia contain the largest number of at-risk properties, with Queensland alone facing exposure of over 93,000 homes.
The economic impact is expected to be severe and wide-ranging. Total projected losses are estimated at $855.1 billion, composed of $274.3 billion in direct property damage and $580.7 billion in land use losses. Major urban areas including the Gold Coast, Brisbane, and Melbourne are anticipated to experience the most significant impacts, with the Gold Coast facing particular vulnerability and projected losses of $84.4 billion. Agricultural land represents a substantial portion of the affected areas, with approximately 619,713 hectares of farming land expected to be damaged, raising concerns about food security.
Professor Tom Kompas from the University of Melbourne, who led the modelling work published in Scientific Reports, noted that these figures represent conservative estimates and do not account for coastal erosion or potential ice sheet melt. The projections are based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario, which anticipates a 2.7-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures by century’s end, consistent with outcomes under current global policies. Global sea levels have risen more than 22 centimeters since 1900, with an additional 14 centimeter rise expected in Australia by 2050.
Experts emphasize the need for immediate planning and adaptation measures. While reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains paramount, Kompas stated that communities must begin responding now by identifying vulnerable areas and developing management strategies. The research provides detailed mapping of hotspots across 239 locations around Australia, enabling targeted planning efforts. Kompas also highlighted the importance of preventing future development in flood-prone areas as a foundational step in managing coastal flood risk.
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