A new Climate Council report has forecasted significant economic and environmental impacts from coastal flooding across Australia through the end of the century. The analysis indicates that more than 267,000 coastal properties and approximately 2 million hectares of land will experience flooding damage by 2100 as sea levels rise. Queensland faces the highest number of at-risk properties at 93,157, followed by New South Wales with 71,210 and Western Australia with 51,366. Metropolitan areas including the Gold Coast, Brisbane, and Melbourne are expected to experience the most severe impacts.
The projected economic losses total $855.1 billion, comprising an estimated $274.3 billion in property losses and $580.7 billion in land use damages. The Gold Coast, identified as Australia’s most exposed urban area, faces $84.4 billion in projected losses, while Melbourne’s concentrations of risk center around Port Phillip Bay and the Yarra River. The modeling was conducted by Professor Tom Kompas at the University of Melbourne and published in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, utilizing localized projections across 239 hotspot areas around Australia.
The report based its projections on a climate scenario known as RCP4.5, which anticipates a 2.7-degree Celsius increase in global temperature by century’s end—consistent with trajectories expected under current global policies. According to the research, agricultural lands face particular vulnerability, with approximately 619,713 hectares of farming land projected to be damaged, raising concerns about future food security. Kompas emphasized that the estimated costs represent a conservative assessment, as they do not account for additional impacts from coastal erosion or major ice sheet melt. Global sea levels have risen more than 22 centimeters since 1900, with human-caused heating as the dominant driver since 1970, and an additional 14 centimeters of rise is anticipated in Australia by 2050.
Experts stress the importance of both emissions reduction and immediate adaptation planning. Kompas noted that while limiting global heating remains paramount, communities must begin implementing adaptive responses now, including avoiding development on flood plains—a practice he indicated remains common.
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