A Climate Council report released this week projects substantial economic damage to Australia’s coastal regions due to rising sea levels and increased flooding through the end of the century. The analysis estimates $855.1bn in total economic losses, comprising $274.3bn in property damage and $580.7bn in land use losses. More than 267,000 coastal properties and approximately 2 million hectares of land are expected to experience flooding impacts by 2100.
Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia face the greatest exposure, with Queensland at risk of 93,157 properties, NSW 71,210, and Western Australia 51,366. Among metropolitan areas, the Gold Coast, Brisbane, and Melbourne are projected to experience the most severe impacts, with the Gold Coast alone facing $84.4bn in economic losses. In Melbourne, concentrated losses are anticipated in low-lying regions near Port Phillip Bay and the Yarra River.
The report’s modeling, conducted by Professor Tom Kompas at the University of Melbourne and published in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, is based on a climate scenario projecting a 2.7-degree Celsius increase in global temperature by century’s end. Kompas characterized the cost estimates as conservative, noting they exclude impacts from coastal erosion and potential significant ice sheet melt. Agricultural land faces particular vulnerability, with approximately 619,713 hectares of farming land projected to be affected, raising concerns about food security.
Global sea levels have risen more than 22 centimeters since 1900, with human-caused climate change as the primary driver of rise since 1970. An additional 14 centimeters of sea level rise is anticipated in Australia by 2050, intensifying the frequency of permanent inundation and tidal flooding. Experts emphasize that while reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains critical, adaptation and planning efforts must begin immediately, including avoiding development on flood-prone areas.
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