The European Union Aviation Safety Agency released its inaugural technical report on ReFuelEU Aviation, covering 2025 data and marking the first full assessment since the EU’s mandatory sustainable aviation fuel targets took effect. The findings indicate the regulation successfully drove market growth, with approximately 1.1 million tonnes of SAF supplied at European airports in 2025, representing 2.8% of total aviation fuel and surpassing the initial 2% mandate requirement.
Despite this achievement, the report identifies critical structural vulnerabilities in Europe’s emerging SAF supply chain. The vast majority of SAF continues to derive from hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids using waste feedstocks, predominantly used cooking oil, which accounts for roughly 80% of EU supply. The rising use of Category 3 animal fats, now comprising approximately 11% of the market, and palm oil mill effluent at around 6% raise sustainability concerns, as these diversion from competing industrial applications may shift rather than reduce overall emissions.
A striking geographic concern emerged in the data: while 84% of SAF is refined within the EU, 85% of the feedstocks originate from outside European borders, up significantly from 69% previously. China remains the primary source of imported feedstocks, creating dependence on international supply chains with variable sustainability credentials and limited availability.
The report identified no commercial-scale synthetic aviation fuel projects at final investment decision stage, despite approximately 60 e-SAF initiatives in development across Europe. EASA’s projections suggest all highly credible projects must advance soon to meet upcoming synthetic fuel targets. Industry analysts recommend maintaining stable regulatory frameworks, establishing de-risking mechanisms such as double-sided auctions to provide revenue certainty for developers, and phasing out EU emissions trading support for certain waste-based SAF pathways to incentivize market diversification toward more sustainable alternatives.
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