Armenia faces pressure on its energy independence following Russia’s announcement of a natural gas suspension. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared on September 11 that the country would pursue alternative gas sources, citing growing tensions between Yerevan and Moscow. Russia supplied approximately 82 percent of Armenia’s natural gas in 2025.
Three days after Pashinyan’s remarks, Gazprom Armenia, a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned Gazprom, announced a suspension of deliveries lasting from September 15-25. The company attributed the action to “scheduled maintenance and repair work” within Russian territory. However, Armenian authorities raised no advance concerns about the cutoff, and Gazprom stated that Armenian reserves and Iranian gas supplies would compensate for the Russian suspension.
Alternatively, Azerbaijan has indicated a willingness to supply Armenia with substantial quantities of natural gas, though with significant conditions attached. Azerbaijani MP Azer Badamov stated that Azerbaijani gas would represent a geographically favorable option for diversification. The offer comes with a major stipulation: gas exports would only commence after Armenia and Azerbaijan finalize a peace agreement that was provisionally arranged in Washington in August 2025.
Negotiations between the two nations have stalled over Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution to formally acknowledge Baku’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory that Azerbaijani forces recovered in 2023. Accepting this condition presents domestic political risks for Pashinyan’s government, as the constitutional change would require a national referendum. Although Pashinyan’s party secured a parliamentary majority in June elections, support for such constitutional modifications among the broader population remains uncertain.
Pashinyan referenced the pending Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity initiative during his September 11 comments, expressing confidence it could address Armenia’s energy challenges. However, this framework is also contingent on resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace negotiations, leaving Armenia’s energy future linked to complex diplomatic and constitutional considerations.
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