Ryanair has issued a cautionary statement regarding potential fare increases across Europe’s short-haul aviation market, contingent on sustained high crude oil prices through summer 2027. The airline attributed its warning to current jet fuel trading levels at $140 per barrel and the financial strain this places on industry competitors with limited fuel hedging strategies.
In response to prevailing market conditions, Ryanair has adjusted its operational plans for the fiscal year ending March. The carrier reduced its passenger forecast from 216 million to 214 million customers, implementing a scaled-back winter schedule to mitigate losses from the unprofitable off-season period. Management expects passenger volumes between November and March to remain relatively unchanged compared with the prior year period, with anticipated cost reductions of €70 million to €100 million from the reduced winter capacity.
Despite these constraints, Ryanair expects to maintain profitability through its fuel hedging strategy, having secured 80% of its jet fuel requirements at $67 per barrel. The company projects summer growth of more than 5%, with April through October passenger numbers anticipated to reach 145 million, up from 138 million. Summer fares are showing modest downward pressure compared with the previous year.
Market conditions remain volatile, with Brent crude reaching $97.04 per barrel on Wednesday—its highest point since late July—amid geopolitical tensions affecting supply concerns. The price subsequently moderated to just below $95. Competitor Wizz Air reported stronger near-term performance, with passenger growth of 25.9% in the previous month driven by expanded flight capacity.
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