Ryanair has issued a cautionary outlook regarding European aviation costs, predicting material increases in short-haul fares next summer if elevated oil prices persist. The Irish budget carrier has adjusted its annual passenger forecast downward to 214 million from an initial target of 216 million, citing concerns about exposure to high jet fuel costs during the traditionally unprofitable winter season.
The airline cited current jet fuel trading levels near $140 per barrel as a key factor in its revised strategy. Ryanair expects passenger volumes between November and March to remain roughly flat compared with the equivalent period in the prior year. The company stated that if oil prices continue at current levels through summer 2027, competitors with less favorable fuel hedging arrangements may struggle to maintain service levels or sustain operations during the winter period.
To mitigate financial strain, Ryanair plans to reduce its winter schedule, which the company estimates will lower winter losses by between €70 million and €100 million. The carrier has hedged approximately 80 percent of its jet fuel requirements at $67 per barrel, positioning it to remain profitable despite market headwinds, though profitability is expected to fall below the previous year’s record levels.
Conversely, Ryanair maintains optimistic projections for its busier summer season, anticipating passenger growth exceeding 5 percent between April and October, with numbers expected to reach 145 million compared with 138 million in the prior year. Fares during the August-September period have drifted modestly lower compared with the same timeframe last year. Meanwhile, competitor Wizz Air reported strong performance, with passenger numbers climbing 25.9 percent year-over-year in the most recent month, driven by expanded flight capacity.
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