Multiple organizations have released updated projections for the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment scheduled for 2027. Independent policy analyst Mary Johnson estimates the adjustment at 3.5% based on the latest consumer price index data, revising upward from an earlier August estimate of 3.4%. The Senior Citizens League projects the same 3.5% figure, down from a 3.6% estimate released the previous month, which would result in average monthly benefit increases of approximately $67.90.
AARB forecasts a slightly higher adjustment of 3.6% for 2027, which would raise average retired worker benefits by $75 monthly. This represents an upward revision from AARP’s August projection of 3.5%. According to government data released Friday, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers registered a 3.5% increase over the past 12 months in August, while the broader consumer price index showed a 3.4% increase.
Analysts note that the final figure will depend partly on volatile energy markets, as oil price fluctuations have significantly influenced overall inflation since geopolitical developments in the region. The official adjustment for 2027 will incorporate one additional month of inflation data before the Social Security Administration announces the final figure in October. The COLA is calculated based on third-quarter inflation comparisons between consecutive years.
For context, beneficiaries received a 2.8% adjustment for 2026, affecting approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income recipients. Over the past decade, annual adjustments have ranged from 0% to 8.7%, with the 8.7% increase in 2023 representing the highest adjustment in four decades. The average COLA over the past 10 years has been approximately 3.1%.
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