Multiple organizations have released projections for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, with estimates clustering around 3.5% to 3.6%. Mary Johnson, an independent analyst specializing in Social Security and Medicare policy, calculated a 3.5% COLA based on the latest consumer price index data. The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.5% increase, which it estimates would raise average monthly benefit checks by $67.90. AARP has forecast a slightly higher 3.6% adjustment, which would add approximately $75 to the average retired worker’s monthly benefit.
These estimates represent a notable increase from the 2.8% boost that approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries received in 2026. The projections would mark the highest annual adjustment in three years, though still below some increases from the preceding decade. Analysts note that final figures remain subject to change, with volatility in oil prices potentially affecting inflation calculations in the coming weeks.
The Social Security Administration determines the COLA based on third-quarter inflation data measured through the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. Current data shows the CPI-W increased 3.5% over the past 12 months as of August, while the broader consumer price index rose 3.4%. The official COLA announcement typically occurs in October and will incorporate one additional month of government inflation data before the final determination is made.
Historically, the Social Security COLA has fluctuated considerably, ranging from 0% in 2016 to 8.7% in 2023—the highest increase in four decades—as inflation dynamics shifted. Over the past decade, the adjustment has averaged approximately 3.1%, according to the Social Security Administration.
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