President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that the ongoing conflict with Iran would conclude “immediately after” the US midterm elections scheduled for November, attributing the continuation of hostilities to Tehran’s efforts to influence domestic American politics.
The conflict has persisted for seven months despite sustained military strikes by the US and Israel aimed at degrading Iran’s military infrastructure, combined with a naval blockade targeting the nation’s ports and economy. In late August, the Trump administration intensified economic pressure through threatened secondary sanctions on Iran’s trading partners. According to analysts, Trump’s declarations about Iran’s imminent capitulation are primarily aimed at domestic audiences and represent an effort to reframe perceptions of his Iran policy ahead of the midterms.
The war has created significant economic headwinds for the US electorate. Gasoline prices have reached a national average of $4.27 per gallon, representing nearly a 30 percent increase year-over-year. Consumer confidence has deteriorated, with surveys indicating that 29 percent of buy-now-pay-later loan users have relied on such credit to purchase groceries, while 47 percent reported late payments. Trump’s approval rating has declined from the high-40s when he took office in January 2025 to the low-to-mid 30s currently.
Democratic leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have publicly urged Trump to terminate the conflict. Political analysts note that Republicans face particular vulnerability not necessarily from defections to Democrats but from reduced voter turnout among the party’s base. Economic factors, particularly fuel prices, are expected to significantly influence voting behavior in the midterm contest.
Meanwhile, Iran has shown resilience in the face of military and economic pressure, suggesting it has prepared for prolonged conflict. Unlike the US and Israel, which face near-term electoral accountability, Iran’s Supreme Leader operates without legislative elections scheduled until 2028, providing Tehran with substantially greater flexibility in pursuing a strategy centered on demonstrating disruptive capacity and positioning itself for eventual negotiations.
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