As the UN General Assembly convenes, European security officials are raising alarms about potential Russian military provocations against NATO members. Intelligence leaders from the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Sweden have indicated in recent discussions that Russia could attempt to test the alliance’s response through an attack on European territory within months rather than years. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has similarly warned parliament that intelligence assessments suggest Russia might launch drone or missile strikes on NATO territory in the coming months, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron to convene an emergency meeting with party leaders to discuss the threat.
These warnings come against the backdrop of an escalating “hybrid war” or “shadow war” campaign attributed to Russian security services. This systematic effort has intensified since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and operates deliberately below the threshold that would trigger a formal military response from NATO. The campaign aims to disrupt support for Ukraine and sow chaos among the alliance by targeting critical infrastructure. Since the beginning of the year, unexplained fires have occurred at defense facilities supplying Ukraine in Italy, Bulgaria, Estonia, and Slovakia. An explosives-laden drone was discovered near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Germany’s Leipzig airport, while authorities in Denmark have warned of Russian recruitment of Danish citizens for sabotage operations.
The campaign extends beyond military infrastructure. In Lithuania, an Ikea was set on fire, while in France, coffins inscribed with references to French soldiers in Ukraine were left beneath the Eiffel Tower. UK authorities have attributed online disinformation campaigns to hostile foreign states including Russia, and two Russian-linked arsonists targeting property connected to a former British prime minister were imprisoned in June. Security analysts note that Russian operatives are increasingly recruiting local operatives online to carry out attacks, making definitive attribution challenging.
European officials have grown frustrated with the term “hybrid war” to describe these activities, arguing that direct attacks constitute more than typical “grey zone” operations. Intelligence officials involved in these discussions were notably willing to speak on the record about their concerns, suggesting they may be attempting to send a deliberate public message about the threat level and the need for coordinated response across the alliance.
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