Influenza activity has begun earlier than usual this year, with cases rising since early September rather than the typical October or November start. Epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health notes that the percentage of positive flu tests in Western states has been climbing steadily, and emergency department visits related to flu have also increased for several weeks.
The early timing and geographic pattern are both unusual. Flu activity typically begins in Southern states before expanding nationwide, but this year Western states including California, Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska have been affected first. Rivers emphasizes that overall flu activity remains low in most parts of the country, though this situation is changing as cases spread more broadly.
Experts point to a newly evolved variant carrying a mutation that appears to enhance its ability to evade existing immunity, particularly among teenagers, as a likely explanation for the unusual pattern. Dr. Alex Greninger, a virologist heading infectious disease diagnostics at the University of Washington, reports that his institution is currently seeing flu activity levels comparable to what they typically observe around Christmas, with the mutated variant appearing frequently.
In response to the early surge, health experts including Greninger, Rivers, and virologist Scott Hensley of the University of Pennsylvania are recommending that people consider receiving flu vaccinations sooner than customary. However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has not launched its typical promotional campaign for influenza vaccines. Dr. Demerte Daskalakis, who previously led the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases before resigning last year to protest political interference, expressed concern about the agency’s limited messaging. A CDC spokesperson stated the agency is developing a communications strategy to provide information about influenza vaccination and other protective measures during respiratory virus season.
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