Brent crude has risen above $110 per barrel following escalating maritime incidents in critical shipping lanes. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps reported attacks on multiple tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis have seized territory near the Bab al-Mandeb strait, another key chokepoint for global energy supplies. These developments have heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions at a time when global strategic petroleum reserves have been substantially depleted.
International Energy Agency member nations released record quantities of emergency oil supplies following the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, including 172.2 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The US reserve has fallen to 283 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982. Globally, strategic stocks excluding China and Iran have declined by approximately 327 million barrels since the end of 2025, leaving roughly 400 million barrels of usable reserves worldwide. China maintains significantly larger reserves at 1.13 billion barrels but is unlikely to export them, while India’s reserves cover only eight days of imports.
Before the conflict, roughly 20 million barrels of oil daily transited the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has increased pipeline shipments through its Red Sea port, but tankers must still pass through the Houthi-controlled Bab al-Mandeb strait. Analysis suggests that if both chokepoints were completely closed and Middle Eastern crude exports fell from 16.8 million to 7.5 million barrels daily, a shortfall of approximately 9.3 million barrels would result.
Energy analysts assess that available global reserves could sustain such a disruption for only weeks to a month or two, depending on release rates and demand response. Market observers suggest prices could reach $150 per barrel under severe shortage scenarios, which would likely trigger significant demand reductions globally. The diesel market would face particular pressure, as it already commands prices nearly double that of crude oil.
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