As crypto and prediction markets expand, their regulator shrinks

by | Oct 11, 2026 | Business

As crypto and prediction markets expand, their regulator shrinks

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has undergone substantial workforce contraction in recent months, coinciding with reduced enforcement activity in cryptocurrency and prediction market regulation. According to U.S. Office of Personnel Management data, the agency had 21% fewer staff members by the end of 2025 compared to the previous decade’s average, with staffing declining 22% between January 2024 and January 2025 alone. Enforcement actions dropped even more precipitously, with the agency filing nearly 80% fewer cases in 2025 than the annual average for the prior ten years.

Former CFTC enforcement lawyers have characterized the staffing reductions as deliberate policy decisions following the Trump administration’s assumption of office in January. Multiple sources indicate that the administration implemented workforce cuts as a signal to the cryptocurrency industry, which had been a focus of Biden-era enforcement efforts. Cases against cryptocurrency firms including Gemini, Celsius, and FTX, as well as the crypto prediction market Polymarket, were subsequently rolled back or closed. Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham, who directed the closure of crypto-related cases before departing in December to take a position at MoonPay, did not respond to inquiries about preferential treatment of the crypto sector.

The reduced enforcement capacity has broader implications beyond cryptocurrency regulation. Staffing shortages have led to the dismissal of cases unrelated to crypto, including fraud allegations against foreign exchange trading platform WorldWideMarkets. Observers have noted that decreased regulatory oversight creates incentives for fraudulent market practices, particularly in prediction markets where advertising practices targeting young men have drawn scrutiny.

The Congressional Research Service has launched an investigation into the CFTC’s staffing levels and enforcement practices following a request from Senator Elizabeth Warren. The Government Accountability Office is preparing to initiate its formal probe in December. The CFTC responded to inquiries by stating it expects to hire approximately 100 employees in critical mission areas by the end of 2026 and noted that staffing has shown slight improvement during 2026.

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