Brazil’s presidential landscape is being reshaped by fundamental changes in the composition and concerns of the working class, particularly evident in former industrial centers like Osasco near São Paulo. The municipality, which backed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, switched its support to right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of voting earlier this month. With Bolsonaro advancing to a runoff scheduled for Sunday, the demographic and economic shifts underway threaten to erode the traditional labor coalition that has long anchored Lula’s political base.
The transformation reflects broader economic changes across Brazil’s landscape. Factories that once defined industrial cities have been replaced by shopping malls and technology companies, while the workforce has shifted from manufacturing to service sector and gig economy work. Union leader Gilberto Almazan acknowledged that the movement he represents struggles to adapt to this new reality, noting that metalworkers, chemical, and textile factories have disappeared while the profile of workers has fundamentally changed. Many voters now operate as independent service providers—driving for ride-sharing apps, delivering food, or running market stalls—rather than participating in collective industrial action.
Voters across Osasco cite economic frustration as a primary motivation for their shift away from Lula. Concerns about inflation, high taxes, and the rising cost of living have driven some supporters to seek alternatives, even as Lula’s administration achieved record low unemployment and removed Brazil from the UN’s Hunger Map. One vendor expressed that economic pressures make choices between paying car installments or purchasing groceries, while others describe feeling that conditions have not improved despite these headline achievements. The desire for “change” emerged as a common refrain among Bolsonaro supporters, though many struggled to articulate specific policy preferences.
Abstention rates reached their highest levels since 1998 in the first round, with 33 million people not voting and higher-than-average abstention in poorer neighborhoods like Rio’s Maré favela. Lula’s campaign has responded by mobilizing large street demonstrations and leveraging social media, including the candidate’s own viral posts and videos. Among Brazil’s poorest citizens, Lula’s welfare programs and labor protections retain support, with beneficiaries crediting his administration for wage increases and healthcare benefits. The runoff will test whether Lula can reconstruct his coalition or whether the structural economic shifts have permanently altered Brazil’s electoral dynamics.
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