Brazilians are set to vote in a presidential runoff on October 25 between three-term incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. The election has emerged as a pivotal moment for Amazon conservation, with climate and environmental scientists expressing concern about the policy trajectories each candidate represents.
In the first round of voting earlier in the month, Bolsonaro secured 2.2 million more votes than Lula, forcing a second-round competition. While both candidates have stated environmental pledges—Lula promising net-zero deforestation by 2030 and Bolsonaro promising zero illegal deforestation by 2029—their approaches diverge significantly. Bolsonaro’s platform emphasizes agribusiness-friendly policies and streamlined environmental licensing, while critics argue this mirrors his father’s presidency, which saw increased forest clearing and weakened enforcement structures. Under Lula’s current administration, deforestation rates have declined annually. Economists and climate scientists warn that a return to the elder Bolsonaro’s practices would substantially accelerate clearing across the region.
The Amazon rainforest stores approximately 175 billion metric tons of carbon and generates roughly half of its own rainfall through its vast vegetation. Scientists have identified a deforestation threshold—estimated between 20 and 28 percent clearing—beyond which the forest could transition into savanna, triggering runaway carbon release. Approximately 18 percent of the total Amazon and 22 percent of the Brazilian Amazon have already been cleared. Recent research suggests that continuing deforestation at Jair Bolsonaro-era rates would push the region toward this danger zone by the middle or end of the 2030s.
Lula’s performance in the first round declined relative to his 2022 results, with particularly steep losses in agricultural municipalities, suggesting agribusiness interests influenced voting patterns. The Parliamentary Agricultural Front, Brazil’s primary agribusiness lobby, recently endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro and has been promised input on agricultural ministry appointments. The election outcome will significantly influence whether the Amazon follows a path toward preservation or accelerated degradation, with implications extending far beyond Brazil’s borders.
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