Researchers have identified significant threats to dozens of famous surf breaks across the world’s surfing reserves, according to analysis published in the journal Climatic Change. The study examined 57 surf breaks across 13 world surfing reserves in eight countries, with nearly 200 local experts contributing assessments of how climate and coastal changes will affect these locations.
The investigation found that more than three-quarters of the analyzed breaks face elevated risk from multiple environmental and development pressures. Rising sea levels driven by global heating alter the delicate oceanographic conditions required to generate quality waves. Changing rainfall patterns also shift sediment movement along coastlines, disrupting the precise combinations of sea-floor topology, swell direction, and tide that create premier surfing conditions. Coastal hardening through construction of sea walls, jetties, and groynes reduces the natural resilience of beaches and waves to adapt to these changes.
Breaks identified as particularly vulnerable include locations such as Croyde in north Devon, Noosa in Australia, Oriente Salvaje in El Salvador, and several Santa Cruz reefs in California. Researchers note that natural coastlines generally possess greater capacity to shift inland and relocate sediments in response to climate pressures compared to developed areas with extensive infrastructure.
The economic implications are substantial for communities reliant on surf tourism. Santa Cruz generates approximately $200 million annually from surfing-related activities, while El Salvador’s eastern region depends heavily on its point break waves. Surfing contributes year-round revenue to local businesses including restaurants, hotels, and retail establishments.
Researchers emphasize that local surfer knowledge could be leveraged to protect waves through collaborative efforts with authorities and community organizations. Several jurisdictions have already implemented protective measures, including Australia’s Gold Coast with surf-specific planning protections, New Zealand’s national significance designation system, and Peru’s legal framework for protecting listed breaks. Researchers advocate for broader adoption of such approaches to safeguard both the waves and the economies they support.
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