The Atlantic basin has not produced a hurricane through September, marking the latest point in the satellite monitoring era without hurricane formation. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could become the first season in the satellite era to conclude without any hurricanes forming, with just two months remaining in the defined season that runs through late November.
The unusual quietness in Atlantic hurricane activity stems primarily from the presence of a strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. The National Hurricane Center had forecast a relatively subdued Atlantic season in May, predicting eight to 14 named storms overall, with three to six expected to reach hurricane strength and one to three becoming major hurricanes. Four named tropical storms did form during September—Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, and Hanna—but only one remained in the open Atlantic waters.
El Niño impacts Atlantic hurricane development through changes in wind patterns. The warming event increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin, where winds at different altitudes blow at varying speeds and directions. This wind shear disrupts the formation and organization of tropical storms, preventing them from intensifying into hurricanes. Meanwhile, the same El Niño conditions create more favorable environments in the eastern Pacific basin, where warmer sea surface temperatures and supportive wind patterns enhance storm development.
Pacific hurricane activity has surged during this El Niño. The region has experienced 17 named storms so far, including nine hurricanes with seven reaching major hurricane status. Sea surface temperatures in key Pacific regions have already exceeded records set during the strong 2015 El Niño event. The accumulated cyclone energy—a measure of total storm activity—is running roughly two and a half times above normal levels for this point in the season. Forecasts indicate the El Niño will intensify further, reaching peak strength in November or December.
Historically, the Atlantic basin has not recorded a season without hurricanes since 1914, though pre-satellite era records cannot confirm with certainty whether storms went undetected. The upcoming months will determine whether the 2026 season breaks this historical pattern.
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