Research led by Dr Annie Jeffery of University College London has identified multiple major events over the past decade that substantially damaged the mental health of British citizens. The study analyzed data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study covering 87,857 people aged 16 and older, with information collected annually between 2009 and 2024. Researchers examined the psychological impact of five major “systemic shocks”: the Brexit referendum in June 2016, the first pandemic lockdown in March 2020, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Liz Truss’s mini-budget in September 2022.
The analysis used the GHQ-12 screening tool to measure mental health impacts. The Brexit referendum was associated with an increase in overall mental ill-health equivalent to approximately 120,000 more people seeking GP help for depression. The first Covid lockdown had a considerably larger effect, equating to about 900,000 additional people visiting their family doctor due to depression symptoms. Russia’s offensive against Ukraine led to about 15,000 more Britons monthly seeking GP help for depression, while the 2022 mini-budget was linked to approximately 23,000 additional monthly GP visits for depression.
The researchers found that psychological distress had been increasing from 2009 onward at clinically significant levels, with acceleration from 2015 onwards. Notably, the heightened distress following these events has persisted beyond 2022 and has not returned to the lower levels observed before 2016. NHS data shows substantial increases in demand for mental health services, with the total number of people in contact with NHS mental health services rising from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25. Monthly new referrals for mental ill-health increased from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026, representing a 47% increase.
The findings come as the government prepares to publish a comprehensive inquiry into recent increases in diagnoses of mental illness, ADHD, and autism. Mental ill-health costs the UK £300bn annually, according to research cited in the report. Experts note that these impacts reflect not a single cause but the cumulative effect of multiple overlapping crises, compounded by years of austerity that have reduced societal resilience to such shocks.
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