Research led by Dr. Annie Jeffery of University College London examined mental health trends using data from 87,857 participants tracked annually between 2009 and 2024. The study identified five significant “systemic shocks” that negatively affected psychological wellbeing across the country: the Brexit referendum in June 2016, the first pandemic lockdown in March 2020, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Liz Truss’s mini-budget in September 2022, and the second Covid lockdown.
Using the GHQ-12 screening tool, researchers quantified the mental health impact of each event. The Brexit vote was associated with approximately 120,000 additional people seeking GP assistance for depression symptoms. The initial lockdown produced significantly larger effects, corresponding to roughly 900,000 more individuals visiting family doctors with depressive symptoms. Russia’s offensive against Ukraine was linked to approximately 15,000 additional monthly GP visits for depression, while the 2022 mini-budget corresponded to about 23,000 additional monthly visits.
A notable finding was that psychological distress increased immediately following the Brexit referendum and first lockdown, while more gradual monthly increases occurred after the Ukrainian invasion and mini-budget announcement. Importantly, elevated distress levels persisted following these events and did not return to pre-2016 baselines, despite the most recent shock occurring in 2022.
NHS data showed substantial increases in mental health service demand, with people in contact with NHS mental health services rising from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25. Monthly new referrals for mental ill-health increased from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026, representing a 47% rise. Mental ill-health costs the UK approximately £300 billion annually, according to research by the Centre for Mental Health.
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