Research led by Dr Annie Jeffery at University College London examined the mental health impacts of five major events occurring over the past decade, using longitudinal data from 87,857 participants tracked between 2009 and 2024. The analysis employed the GHQ-12 screening tool to measure psychological distress across the population.
The five events studied were the Brexit referendum, the first and second Covid lockdowns, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Liz Truss’s mini-budget. The Brexit referendum in June 2016 and the first pandemic lockdown in March 2020 produced the most significant immediate effects on mental health. The lockdown had a particularly pronounced impact, equivalent to approximately 900,000 additional people seeking general practitioner care for depression symptoms, compared to roughly 120,000 additional people following the Brexit vote. Russia’s offensive in February 2022 corresponded with about 15,000 additional monthly GP visits for depression, while Truss’s mini-budget in September 2022 coincided with approximately 23,000 additional monthly visits for depression-related issues.
A key finding was that psychological distress levels have not returned to pre-2016 baseline levels despite the most recent shock occurring in 2022. Data from NHS mental health services demonstrated substantial increases in demand, with the total number of people in contact with these services rising from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25. Monthly new referrals to the NHS for mental ill-health increased from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026, representing a 47% jump.
The findings are being released as Prof Peter Fonagy’s government-commissioned inquiry into rising diagnoses of mental illness, ADHD, and autism prepares for publication. Mental ill-health currently costs the UK £300bn annually, and experts note that cumulative effects of multiple shocks combined with years of austerity have reduced population resilience to crisis events.
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