Research led by Dr Annie Jeffery at University College London examined the mental health impacts of five major “systemic shocks” on the British population over the past decade. The study analyzed data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, which tracked 87,857 people aged 16 and older annually between 2009 and 2024. The researchers used the GHQ-12 screening tool to measure psychological distress and estimate how specific events affected mental wellbeing.
The five events examined were the Brexit referendum in June 2016, the first Covid lockdown in March 2020, Russia’s offensive against Ukraine in February 2022, the second pandemic lockdown, and Liz Truss’s mini-budget in September 2022. All five caused immediate damage to overall mental health. The Brexit vote led to approximately 120,000 more people seeking GP help for depression-related symptoms. The first lockdown had substantially larger effects, equating to about 900,000 additional GP visits for depression. Russia’s invasion triggered about 15,000 more monthly GP visits for depression, while Truss’s mini-budget resulted in approximately 23,000 additional monthly visits.
The findings indicate that psychological distress rose sharply immediately following Brexit and the first lockdown, while showing more gradual monthly increases after the Ukraine invasion and economic crisis. Notably, the elevated distress levels have persisted since 2016 and have not returned to pre-2016 baseline levels, despite the most recent shock occurring in 2022. The research, published in BMJ Mental Health, suggests that accumulated stress from multiple overlapping crises contributed to population-wide mental health deterioration.
National health system data corroborates these findings. NHS mental health service contacts in England nearly doubled from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25. Monthly new referrals for mental ill-health increased from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026, representing a 47% increase. Mental health experts note that these shocks created broader societal effects by reducing sense of security and connection. Mental ill-health costs the UK £300bn annually, according to research cited by the Centre for Mental Health.
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