Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have largely rebounded to pre-conflict levels, reaching at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September according to trade intelligence data. This recovery follows the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February, when initial disruptions caused exports to drop to 6 million barrels per day during the opening weeks of the conflict. Oil producers and shipping industry operators have implemented multiple workarounds to circumvent the disruption and minimize the impact of Iranian efforts to control the strategic waterway.
Major alternative transport mechanisms now account for a significant portion of regional crude exports. Approximately 40 percent of crude from the region now bypasses the strait entirely through Saudi and Emirati pipeline networks, compared with just 17 percent before the conflict. Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline resumed operations in late September following repairs from drone damage, enabling renewed exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Additionally, a shuttle fleet of very large crude carriers operates with disabled satellite transponders, conducting ship-to-ship cargo transfers in open water off Oman and the United Arab Emirates, with over 70 percent of strait-transited crude changing vessels in August.
Despite the recovery in crude exports, the broader energy picture remains unbalanced. Supplies of refined products such as diesel remain severely constrained, with flows at less than 20 percent of pre-conflict levels according to analysts. This shortage has driven diesel prices to record highs, with UK fuel hitting 199.18 pence per litre, creating challenges for businesses and households dependent on these products. Brent crude prices have reached elevated levels, briefly moving above 100 dollars per barrel on Thursday amid reports of Chinese export restrictions on oil products.
Industry observers caution that the market’s adaptation should not be conflated with genuine security. Shipping analysts note that while oil flows have recovered, underlying threats to vessels and crew remain, as demonstrated by recent incidents involving projectile strikes on tankers. The recovery has been achieved through increased operational complexity and higher costs rather than resolution of the underlying conflict, leaving uncertainty about long-term energy market stability and the reopening of normal strait operations.
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