Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have largely returned to pre-war volumes following the outbreak of the Iran war, as producers and shipping operators have implemented alternative transport methods to circumvent regional disruptions. According to trade intelligence firm Kpler, at least 16.5 million barrels per day departed the region in September, matching the pre-war average excluding Iranian supplies. This represents a significant recovery from March’s monthly average of 6 million barrels per day during the early stages of the conflict that began on 28 February with military strikes on Iran.
Producers have adopted multiple workarounds to maintain supply flows despite disruptions. Approximately 40% of regional crude now bypasses the strait through Saudi and Emirati pipeline infrastructure, compared to 17% before the conflict. Saudi Arabia successfully resumed operations on its east-west pipeline in late September following damage from drone attacks, enabling exports to resume from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Additionally, the majority of crude transiting the strait now travels via a shuttle fleet of very large crude carriers operating with disabled satellite transponders, with cargo transferred to different tankers in international waters off Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
Despite the recovery in crude volumes, the market recovery remains uneven. Refined product shipments through the strait have not recovered proportionally, with current flows representing less than 20% of pre-war levels. Kpler recorded a seven-day average of 677,000 barrels per day of refined products as of early October, compared to 3.6 million before the war. This supply constraint has driven prices significantly higher, with UK diesel prices reaching 199.18 pence per litre at one point, with some retail locations reporting prices exceeding £2 per litre.
Security concerns persist despite the operational adaptation. Three Liberian-flagged tankers were hit by projectiles while transiting the strait, underscoring ongoing risks to vessels and crews. Brent crude prices reached above $100 per barrel following the recovery in exports, reflecting both improved supply and continued uncertainty regarding long-term conflict resolution and full reopening of the strategic waterway. Additional market pressure emerged when reports indicated China had suspended oil product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, signalling potential concerns about domestic availability.
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