Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have largely recovered to pre-war levels following the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler. Data from September showed at least 16.5 million barrels per day departing the region, matching the average before the conflict began. This recovery represents a significant rebound from March, when exports had fallen to 6 million barrels per day during the initial weeks of hostilities.
Oil producers and shipping companies have developed several workarounds to maintain flows despite regional instability. Approximately 40 percent of crude now bypasses the strait entirely through Saudi and Emirati pipeline systems, up from 17 percent before the conflict. Saudi Arabia restored operations on its east-west pipeline in late September following repairs from drone damage, enabling resumed exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Additionally, a shuttle fleet of very large crude carriers operates with disabled satellite transponders, transferring cargo to different tankers in open water near Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
Despite the recovery in crude shipments, the export recovery remains uneven. Refined product flows have not rebounded correspondingly, with less than 20 percent of pre-war diesel volumes transiting through the strait. Kpler analysts recorded 677,000 barrels per day of refined products as of the time of reporting, compared to 3.6 million before the war. This constraint has contributed to elevated fuel prices, with UK diesel reaching an all-time high of 199.18 pence per litre.
Security concerns persist despite the operational adjustments. Three Liberian-flagged tankers were struck by projectiles while transiting the strait earlier in the week. Industry observers noted that while markets have adapted to disruptions through increased complexity and costs, the underlying security threat remains unresolved.
Crude prices have climbed in response to market uncertainties. Brent crude briefly exceeded $100 per barrel, rising 3 percent to $101. Price movements have been influenced by both the recovery in some regional exports and ongoing concerns about a permanent resolution to the conflict. Additional pressure emerged from reports that China had suspended oil product exports to regions beyond Hong Kong and Macau, signaling potential concerns about domestic supply availability.
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