Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have largely recovered to levels preceding the Iran war that began on 28 February, reaching at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September according to trade intelligence data. This represents a significant rebound from March figures, when exports averaged 6 million barrels per day during the initial weeks of conflict. The recovery reflects adaptation by Middle Eastern oil producers and maritime operators who have implemented alternative transportation methods to circumvent disruptions in the strategic waterway.
About 40 percent of regional crude now travels through Saudi and Emirati pipelines rather than transiting the strait, compared with 17 percent before hostilities commenced. Saudi Arabia’s restart of its east-west pipeline in late September following earlier drone damage enabled resumed exports from the Red Sea port. Additionally, the majority of crude passing through the strait now travels on shuttle vessels with disabled satellite transponders, with cargo transferred to different tankers in open water near Oman or Fujairah. Over 70 percent of August shipments involved such transfers, whereas virtually no Gulf crude underwent this process before the war.
Despite the recovery in crude exports, supplies of refined products such as diesel remain severely constrained. Less than 20 percent of pre-war refined product volumes are being transported through the strait, with weekly averages recorded at 677,000 barrels per day against the previous 3.6 million. This shortage has driven elevated prices, with UK diesel reaching a record 199.18 pence per litre on Monday, with forecourts reporting prices exceeding £2 per litre.
Security threats persist despite the adaptation measures. Three Liberian-flagged tankers were struck by projectiles while transiting the strait on Tuesday. Analysts emphasize that while market participants have absorbed the operational complexity and higher costs of alternative routes, underlying risks remain unresolved. Crude prices remain elevated, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel on Thursday amid uncertainty over long-term conflict resolution and uncertainty regarding regional product availability following reports of Chinese export suspensions.
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