Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have largely recovered to pre-conflict levels following the outbreak of the Iran war on 28 February. Data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed that at least 16.5 million barrels per day departed the region in September, matching pre-war averages excluding Iranian supplies. This represents a significant rebound from March, when conflict disruptions reduced flows to 6 million barrels per day.
Oil producers and shipping operators have implemented multiple strategies to circumvent disruptions and Iranian attempts to control the strategic waterway. Approximately 40 percent of regional crude now travels via Saudi and Emirati pipelines rather than through the strait, compared with 17 percent before the conflict. Saudi Arabia successfully resumed operations on its east-west pipeline in late September following repairs from drone damage, enabling exports to resume from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Additionally, the majority of crude transiting the strait is now carried by tankers operating with satellite transponders disabled, with cargoes transferred to different vessels in open water off Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
Despite the recovery in crude exports, refined product supplies remain severely constrained. Flows of diesel and other refined products through the strait have fallen to less than 20 percent of pre-war levels, with recorded volumes of 677,000 barrels per day compared to 3.6 million previously. This shortage has driven prices significantly higher, with diesel prices in the UK reaching record levels.
Shipping industry observers note that while market participants have adapted to the disruptions through greater operational complexity and higher costs, underlying security risks persist. Three tankers were struck by projectiles while transiting the strait earlier this week, illustrating continued threats to vessels and crews. Crude oil prices have remained elevated, with Brent crude briefly surpassing $100 per barrel, as traders assess the recovery against ongoing uncertainty regarding a long-term resolution and full strait reopening. Additional pressure came from reports of China suspending oil product exports to certain regions.
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