Texas is experiencing rapid growth in data center development to support generative AI infrastructure, with facilities requiring substantial electricity consumption. According to a report from the Houston Advanced Research Center, the environmental impact of these facilities will largely depend on how developers choose to power their operations.
Under a scenario where all planned data centers connect to the existing power grid with the anticipated energy mix, air quality gains accumulated over recent decades could be significantly reversed. The analysis indicates fine particle pollution from the power sector could more than triple, reaching its highest level since 2006. Smog-forming nitrogen oxide emissions would increase 136 percent, approaching 2004 levels, while carbon dioxide pollution would climb 90 percent above 2025 levels.
However, the environmental outcome remains uncertain and dependent on developer choices. Many proposed data center projects remain speculative and may not proceed. Developers can substantially reduce environmental impacts by building onsite solar and wind farms to complement grid power, potentially lowering nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 10 times compared to grid-only scenarios.
Texas currently leads the nation in data center capacity with 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction facilities. The state is also experiencing a disproportionate share of proposed onsite power generation projects compared to other states. A concerning trend involves developers selecting less efficient gas turbine technology to accelerate construction timelines, potentially worsening air pollution outcomes. Industry officials have warned that progress made through transportation sector improvements and other initiatives over decades could be jeopardized by current development patterns.
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