English councils are raising alarm over mounting deficits related to special educational needs and disability (Send) support, with projections indicating accumulated debt could reach £10bn within 18 months. The County Councils Network released forecasts indicating that despite the government clearing more than £5bn in historic Send debts recently, the rapid growth in demand for support will result in councils re-accumulating that amount by April and doubling it by 2028.
The spike in applications for education, health and care plans (EHCPs)—formal documents that mandate support for conditions including speech and learning difficulties, autism, and ADHD—appears partly driven by parents and schools rushing to secure support before the government implements planned changes to Send provision. A government-commissioned report published recently confirmed that increases in mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions are genuine and reflect real distress, but cautioned that resulting demand for services would be unsustainable without new approaches to managing pressure on public services.
Council leaders argue the overspending does not reflect reckless spending but rather the obligation to meet rapidly growing statutory demand without proportional funding increases. Several councils are forecasting six-figure deficits, with Hampshire projecting a £200m shortfall for the current year. The CCN has called on ministers to guarantee coverage of future Send debts, warning that without such assurance, councils face potential bankruptcy and will be forced to make difficult choices affecting other frontline services. Internal reports indicate many councils anticipate double-digit annual increases in EHCP requests over coming years, with projections suggesting nearly one in ten pupils could have an EHCP by 2029.
The government stated it recognizes that deficits and EHCP applications will continue rising before reforms are fully implemented and committed to setting out further support details before April 2028, when an accounting override arrangement currently protecting councils from recording Send debt on their balance sheets is scheduled to expire. However, ministers have indicated future debt support would be “appropriate and proportionate” but “not unlimited,” leaving significant uncertainty about the extent of future assistance.
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