The Conservative party’s opposition policy booklet, published this month, contains a claim regarding net-zero costs that appears to result from a mathematical error in data compilation. The document states that the Climate Change Committee estimated its net-zero pathway would cost £957 billion in 2020. However, the CCC’s actual 2020 figure was £478 billion, exactly half the amount cited. The committee subsequently revised its estimate downward to £108 billion last year, driven largely by declining electric vehicle costs.
The source of the erroneous figure traces back to a spreadsheet error. The CCC’s 2020 spreadsheet listed capital expenditures totaling £1.38 trillion and operational savings of £0.90 trillion across a 30-year period. When properly netted together, these figures yield £478 billion. However, the spreadsheet also contained a summary line showing combined annual totals. Someone apparently summed all figures in the spreadsheet without recognizing the summary line, resulting in double-counting and producing the £957 billion total.
The mistaken figure appears to have entered circulation through an article published in January 2026 by David Turver, an engineer and self-described “accidental energy analyst,” who cited the CCC’s data. Turver repeated the error in a subsequent report for the Institute of Economic Affairs. The erroneous figure was subsequently adopted by the Great British Think Tank in March 2026 before appearing in the Conservative party’s policy document this month.
According to the CCC’s original 2020 assessment, the £478 billion net cost represented less than 1 percent of GDP over 30 years and would ultimately boost overall economic output by approximately 2 percent. The committee’s revised 2025 estimates reduced the net cost further to £108 billion over a 25-year period. The CCC has also stated that net-zero transition costs would be lower than the expense of a significant fossil-fuel price shock and would generate annual benefits valued at £110 billion.
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